U.S. Economy
Intelligence briefing synthesized from fresh market benchmarks and news sentiment.
66
/ 100
Stable
66
/ 100
Stable
Snapshot (this week)
15d66 steady
Regime: Overheating Outlook: Moderate growth
Confidence
87%
U.S. Economy Holds Steady Despite Inflation Concerns
Strong job market and business confidence offset PCE inflation gap
Drivers
- + Improving job market (Initial claims, Unemployment gap)
- + Business confidence (HY credit spread, Yield curve slope)
Risks
- − PCE inflation gap widening
- − Consumer sentiment dip
Metric breakdown
Weighted Average: 66Real GDP growth 70
2.0 12% wt
Unemployment gap 96
4.3 12% wt
Payroll growth 63
1.3 8% wt
Initial claims 99
189000.0 5% wt
PCE inflation gap 0
8.0 13% wt
Yield curve slope 100
0.5 8% wt
HY credit spread 95
2.8 8% wt
10Y real rate 94
1.9 4% wt
S&P 500 drawdown 75
5% wt
VIX 99
17.3 5% wt
News & video sentiment 50
10% wt
Consumer sentiment 5
53.3 5% wt
Benchmarks
S&P 500
7,269.42
+0.93%
Nasdaq Composite
25,347.18
+1.07%
Dow Jones
49,314.35
+0.74%
Russell 2000
2,843.66
+1.68%
Long Treasuries
$85.46
+0.54%
VIX
17.29
-5.47%
10Y Treasury Yield
4.42%
-0.67%
Crude Oil
$102.28
-2.79%
Gold
$4,571.00
+0.85%
Dollar Index
98.45
+0.06%
Market Signal: Benchmarks rise, long treasuries gain
Macro Indicators
Growth
Real GDP (SAAR) 2026-01-01
$24.17T
+0.49%
Industrial Production 2026-03-01
101.8
-0.54%
Retail Sales (ex-food svc) 2026-03-01
$651.8B
+1.90%
Labor
Initial Jobless Claims 2026-04-25
189000.0K
-12.09%
Job Openings (JOLTS) 2026-03-01
6866.0K
-0.81%
Non-Farm Payrolls 2026-03-01
158637.0K
+0.11%
Unemployment Rate 2026-03-01
4.30%
-2.27%
Inflation
CPI (All Urban) 2026-03-01
330.3
+0.87%
PCE Price Index 2026-03-01
130.3
+0.66%
Rates
High-Yield Credit Spread 2026-05-04
2.78%
+0.36%
Fed Funds Rate 2026-05-01
3.64%
0.00%
10Y TIPS (Real Rate) 2026-05-01
1.91%
-1.55%
10Y Treasury 2026-05-01
4.39%
-0.23%
2Y Treasury 2026-05-01
3.88%
0.00%
30Y Mortgage Rate 2026-04-30
6.30%
+1.12%
Sentiment
UMich Consumer Sentiment 2026-03-01
53.3
-5.83%
Housing
Case-Shiller Home Price 2026-02-01
327.3
+0.29%
Housing Starts 2026-03-01
1502.0K
+10.77%
Forecasts
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook • WEO April 2026
| Indicator | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account % of GDP | -4.0% | -3.6% | -3.7% | -3.6% | -3.6% | -3.6% | -3.6% | -3.6% | % |
| Govt net lending/borrowing % GDP | -7.9% | -6.8% | -7.5% | -7.4% | -7.6% | -7.5% | -7.5% | -7.4% | % |
| Government gross debt % of GDP | 122.3% | 123.9% | 125.8% | 128.6% | 132.1% | 135.5% | 138.9% | 142.1% | % |
| Unemployment rate | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | % |
| Nominal GDP | $29.3T | $30.8T | $32.4T | $33.8T | $35.1T | $36.4T | $37.7T | $39.0T | $B |
| Real GDP growth | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | % |
| Inflation (CPI, avg) | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | % |
amber = forecast · neutral = actual · swipe to see later years.